Will the Redfish come back next year?

[chex]

I had a blast catching puppy drum in the bay this year. They're great fighters, beautiful, and according to my dad who caught a keeper (and didn't share his dinner with me... hmpf!), they are one of the most delicious fish he's eaten.

I haven't been fishing for long, but from what I hear, redfish coming up the bay as far as they did this year is unusual, but not unprecedented.

People I've talked to have 2 different theories for why it occurred: 1 - It's a natural cycle. 2 - It's because of low rainfall / high salinity.

What do you think? Will they be back next year?

[Fishinfool]

Let's hope they'll be back. It's nice to have a newer species to target along w/ the the usual rockfish and perch, etc.

It's probably a combination of factors including high salinity, low rainfall, and also higher water temps. last winter into summer (just guessing on that one)? It's a question that the fisheries experts at N.O.A.A. could stay busy on for awhile. No one's yet really figured out the blue crab cycle definitively either, so don't hold your breath.

[ronaultmtd]

they are still being caught at the hot ditch at the Harry Nice bridge

[chex]

they are still being caught at the hot ditch at the Harry Nice bridge

and Fred Driver caught a 17" red at the Calvert Cliffs last weekend... wouldn't it be nice if they just stuck around through the winter... wishful thinking I know.

[Sun]

If it's because of low salinity, which sounds the most plausible to me, I am doubtful that they'll come up too far next year. From what I've heard from several sources, we are to expect a snowy winter, which probably will result in more fresh water in the bay.

I feel like the 12-18 inch reds are very similar to croakers...in strength, looks (I had read some reports of people catching loads of croakers this year...but they all had dots on them)....and maybe taste? I can't speak for the taste part, because I haven't caught one large enough to keep yet. If the reds aren't around, but I could hook into some 18 inch croakers next year, I'd be happy.

[Shady]

I hope they come back because I enjoyed catching them for the first time this year, but I'm doubtful. While a dry winter/spring might be good for getting saltier fish further up the bay, a wetter winter/spring is better for our rockfish spawn success.
I've had croaker a couple of times and don't really care for them. I've had redfish a couple of times and they are very good and not like croaker, probably closer to speckled trout in taste and texture in my opinion.

[DOGFISH]

In past summers there have been a few Redfish caught in the South River. This year was exceptional for the bay. However, other estuaries, such as Indian River lagoon and further up the Indian River have good numbers of Redfish. Does it really need to be that salty? Is it really the salinity? In Louisiana there are areas where you can catch Redfish, Seatrout and Largemouth bass in the same areas of the Mississippi Delta. It is called a Louisiana Slam. So it may be the more temperate climate that we have been having. Hopefully, the Redfish are expanding their range.

[ronaultmtd]

Climate change will affect everything- science tells us the change of 2 degrees changes the entire Earth's weather patterns- redfish will be just one of many Southern species we will soon see in our area-