Help with reading the weather reports

[22Tango]

I really wanted to take the kayak out this past Saturday. So much so that i put it up on the car roof Friday night in preparation for an early Sat outing. I even thought of chiming in with the group that was going to Kent Island early Saturday because I have never been out with anyone else and learning by trial and error is a steep learning curve!

Anyway, I went to the NOAA posting on this forum and linked to the NOAA site. Basically there was a "small craft advisory" till 6pm on everything from Fort Smallwood to at least the middle bay. Ok, maybe I won't go then, I thought. Even when I woke up at 6 am, the weather didn't look bad at my house. But then I thought maybe it's bad down on the water? So I didn't go ... based on the NOAA weather report.

That's all good, but I just saw the pics from someone took from a Saturday excursion near Kent Island. The water looks like glass!! I don't think I've ever been out when it's that calm!

My question: Am I reading the NOAA reports wrong? Are there some hints or factors that I should look at when deciding whether to be deterred by the weather report. I can't see the water from my house, so I really have nothing else to base whether I should go or not on except the weather report, so I'm hoping that you may have some advice that can help me to not miss good fishing days in the future, or drive for miles for nothing on bad days, or spend all of my discretionary budget on lures like I did this weekend because I didn't fish.

P.S.: Bonus dumb question: When one of you comments that the water is bad when winds are blowing south, does that mean wind blowing "from the south" (which would means they blow northward) or "to the south" (which means they blow southward)? And second, on the weather reports when they read "Winds south at xyz knots, for example, do they likewise mean "to" or "from" the South.

Sorry for the long post. I'm sincere in my questions. Thanks for any help.

P.P.S: I notice that Kent island pics were not from Saturday, but I still have my questions. Thanks.

[DOGFISH]

When the wind blows out of the South, means it is coming from a Southerly direction. So in that case select an area sheltered from that type of wind, conversely the South shore of a creek or river, should be ok to fish, given that the wind is not so strong to ruin all of the water. There are times when the wind is so strong that it blows out everything. The Severn is a good bet when the wind is out of the South. So use the wind to plan your fishing accordingly. Just think of areas that will be sheltered from certain winds. With experience you will also come to know how much wind, from a certain direction and where you will be able to fish in selected areas. I also like to use intellicast for weather. On that web site you can also check radar for approaching storms.

[dhawk]

Some times it just pays to get in the car and check out the water where you want to go this time of year most of the bad weather is usually in the afternoon after the heat of the day kicks off thunderstorms in the morning winds might be light that will allow a few hours of good weather before it gets dicey also if the wind is coming from the south and the tide is running out or against it there will be a heavier chop where ever the tide moves agains the wind and if the tide is moving with the wind it can produce a stronger current. I always have a spot chosen to fish and a couple alternatives nearby just in case. The weatherman is the only job where you can be wrong most of the time and still get paid.

[CAGE RATTLER]

I have the NOAA marine weather app from bluefin on my smart phone to see projected sea conditions (not that they are always right) and also the weather channel app I use to keep track of approaching storm fronts & hourly wind predictions. Checking the radar lets me see when a window opens up or how soon a storm may be hitting.
I also have an app for the weather buoy's across the bay to see real time conditions. (wind speed, wave heights and if current is running).
http://buoybay.noaa.gov/

Also just because theres a small craft waring on the bay doesnt mean there isnt anywhere to find protection from the wind to fish.
And yes a SW wind prediction is coming FROM the SW.

[HJS]

Weather sites that summarize the day's weather/wind forecast in a few words or phases will always forecast the worst possible senario for the day. I much prefer using the hour-by-hour forecast... the kind you'll find on CBOFS

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ofs/cbofs/cbofs.html

"When winds are blowing south" is a very awkward and confusing way of describing wind direction. Even I wouldn't know quite what to make of it. DOGFISH and others described it best. Also wind from the north or south can be more problematic than wind from east or west. Wind from the N or S blow over a lot greater distance of the Bay and as a result the waves generally are higher than waves created by a E or W wind.

[ronaultmtd]

Bill and Kevin can tell you that I have been known to fish in 40 mph winds- last year Bill (Ictalurus) and I caught a nice mess of speckled trout in 20-25 SW winds gusting to 40- it was pretty bumpy, but marginally fishable where we fished- I really studied the maps that weekend before choosing a fishing spot- trying to put as much land as possible between us and the wind-there is usually somewhere out of the wind you can find to fish if you study the NOAA charts-

[Capt C-Hawk]

My thing would always be to pick the better forecast between Sat and Sun and plan to fish that day. I've learned that doing that always had me home both days kicking myself. Meteorologists are paid a lot of money for their best guess. Even chanel 9's Topper doesn't have much of a clue unless he's standing on his weather terrace.
Anymore I do my own guessing. If Thurs and Fri are nice, chances are the good weather spell will extend into Sat. If the weather leading into Sat. has been bad, hope for a red sky sunset on Friday. If the bad weather runs into Sat, hope for a red sky sunset on Sat.
Even with wind blowing there's always a place to go, you just have to pick your spots Find a lee shoreline and let the wind blow over your head. There are things to beware of anytime you're on the water. If you see clouds building towards the NW or even west of you, you can be fairly certain that a storm will be coming at you soon.
Finally, there's a pretty good reason why old sayings are repeated. "Red sky at night, sailors delight", "red sky in the morning, sailors take warning", "when the wind is from the west, the fish bite best", "when the wind is from the east, the fish bit least", "when the wind blows south, the bait's in their mouth." Of course there are always exceptions, so just take a drive and decide at the ramp. Hope this was all as clear as mud, good luck.

[DOGFISH]

Also, I like one of the tips that Pinch gave out not long ago. If you are planning to fish the BB, go to their web site and take a look at the water through one of their traffic cameras. Not that I like to fish the bridge area. I have always avoided that area, even when boating, even though it is a good area to fish, crowds. However, I thought that was creative.

[jet]

excellent thread, and i too, have stayed home bc of the forecast, only to kick myself. but then again, i have stayed home when friends drove 1-2+ hours only to turn around. ha. in construction, i was taught to make the decision to work at the jobsite, not at home. just wish the fishing jobsite wasnt so far away at times, lol

end of the day, i'm STILL trying to figure out when to go or not based off the forecast, so love the above replies and look forward to see how others decide.

[rob-kayak]

The $64,000 question... the weather.

And it's going to depend on the time of the year... particularly when it is unsettled conditions as it has been lately.
Often July will be a dry settled month.. but this year we have lots of storms crossing the Chesapeake.
Some areas of the bay you will see warnings, while others have none.
On the west side of the bay strong south winds over long open stretches of water will produce larger waves.
A northwest wind on the west side of the bay can often be blocked by the land and have calmer conditions "up river."

Basically there was a "small craft advisory" till 6pm on everything from Fort Smallwood to at least the middle bay.

I don't think you were actually reading the report incorrectly. You are going to see short term "small craft advisories" and longer term advisories.
A long term advisory would be for example a northeaster blowing for a number of days and quite predictable. With the short term advisories
for now it's mostly this unsettled weather pattern we are in.... ie thunderstorms producing strong winds and waves... and hit or miss locations.
You can often fish in the morning and avoid dangerous conditions later in the day.. avoid going to open water.. always keep a spot on land you might be able to reach, beach, and find rescue.

Look towards trends in weather patterns and watch how the low pressures move around.

I look at the buoys quite often.. there are some apps you can download..
I put together this webpage for myself to keep an eye on buoy reports...
http://www.mychesapeakebay.net/weath...baybuoys.shtml

I think everybody has the same questions about weather as you have... the more you watch the conditions and the reports
the more comfortable you'll get at making decisions.

[AbuMasgouf]

This is a really insightful thread! Thanks 22Tango for asking the question and thanks to everyone who shared a bit of wisdom!

[Fishinfool]

The $64,000 question... the weather.

And it's going to depend on the time of the year... particularly when it is unsettled conditions as it has been lately.
Often July will be a dry settled month.. but this year we have lots of storms crossing the Chesapeake.
Some areas of the bay you will see warnings, while others have none.
On the west side of the bay strong south winds over long open stretches of water will produce larger waves.
A northwest wind on the west side of the bay can often be blocked by the land and have calmer conditions "up river."


I don't think you were actually reading the report incorrectly. You are going to see short term "small craft advisories" and longer term advisories.
A long term advisory would be for example a northeaster blowing for a number of days and quite predictable. With the short term advisories
for now it's mostly this unsettled weather pattern we are in.... ie thunderstorms producing strong winds and waves... and hit or miss locations.
You can often fish in the morning and avoid dangerous conditions later in the day.. avoid going to open water.. always keep a spot on land you might be able to reach, beach, and find rescue.

Look towards trends in weather patterns and watch how the low pressures move around.

I look at the buoys quite often.. there are some apps you can download..
I put together this webpage for myself to keep an eye on buoy reports...
http://www.mychesapeakebay.net/weath...baybuoys.shtml

I think everybody has the same questions about weather as you have... the more you watch the conditions and the reports
the more comfortable you'll get at making decisions.

Good advice Rob.

There's also a waterman story I can relate. A good friend married the daughter of a waterman from the St. Michael's area. This guy was the real deal, made his living oystering and crabbing decades ago. They were having a crab feast with the extended family on the Miles River in late September some years ago. Dozens of people, bushels of crabs, corn on the cob, cold beer, the works.

The wind came up, the sky went black and the women and children went running for cover. "Pop" as he was affectionately known, calmly sat there and contentedly kept eating his crabs. When it looked like all hell was ready to break loose, he was by himself. When one of the grandchildren came out to save him from impending disaster, he looked up and out, listened intently, smelled the air, and just says simply "not our storm, may be someone else's but not our storm." "Pop" kept pickin' his crabs and drinking his Natty Boh.

A few minutes later, the sun came out and rest of the clan had all come back outside and resumed the crab feast.

Most of us can never have the lifetime of experience of a waterman like "Pop", but the moral of the story is this; learn to look, listen, and smell and feel the air. Is the temperature dropping quickly? Are the gulls, and osprey etc. going crazy? Is the wind changing direction and picking up speed? If so, head for cover fast! If not, keep a watchful eye and keep fishing, but position yourself near cover, like under a vacant boathouse, or just stay closer to shore and be ready.

In Sept of '11, I got caught in a bad squall; close lightning, buckets of rain, high winds, no visibility, but I was fishing near a boathouse. Before it got bad, I just paddled under it and stayed there for maybe an hour for it to clear.

Oftentimes our most accurate weather predicting technology is our own senses!